Forecasting the Stock Market
Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. "Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months." Right! I have trouble trying to forecast what it will do tomorrow. Do not trust any who claims he knows what the future will be for the market.
Of course, your broker will send you gobs of slick material about various companies that predict they will double or triple in the next 12 months. On the New York Stock Exchange there will be about one half of one per cent (0.5%) of companies that will double this year. Are you smart enough to pick those winners? I'm not and I am considered a professional trader. And I am sure your broker isn't either. He just wants to make a commission and is probably promoting a stock his brokerage company wants to push.
Every investor wants to know the future and will send money to some "expert" who will send him news about a company that only (?) he knows. And pigs can fly. One thing about the market. It is almost impossible to keep a secret and everyone knows everything about other companies. As soon as some "analyst" finds a cogent fact that can influence a stock price he will share that "secret" with a few close friends. Within minutes the "secret" is known by hundreds of thousands and is immediately reflected in the price of the stock.
If you do get sucked into one of these money traps by some smooth-talking salesman or newspaper verbiage I strongly suggest you immediately plan your exit strategy. Without an exit plan you can easily lose a large amount of your "investment". This is not an investment; it is a gamble and should be treated as such. The first thought of any professional trader is 'if I am wrong how much am I willing to lose'? Maybe 2%, 5%, certainly no more than 10%. Pros understand that small losses are OK, but never take a big loss.
From 1982 to 2000 it seemed everyone was a financial genius. How many of those folks kept those big winnings from 2000? Almost none. Most lost 40% to 60% of their money. Brokers said, "Hang in there. You are in for the long haul". Unfortunately he did not tell you that Modern Portfolio Theory is based on a 40 year time line.
Yes, but understand you don't need to predict anything. Don't forecast. What you can easily learn is follow the major trend. You bought in 1982 and you sold out in 2000. The trend can be found in many ways with the simplest being posted every day in Investors Business Daily newspaper under the IBD Mutual Fund Index. When the Index price is above the 200-day moving average you own equities and when it is below you are in cash or bonds. Nothing complicated,
Don't try to forecast the market. Let the market trend tell you.
Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.
More Resources
Unable to open RSS Feed $XMLfilename with error HTTP ERROR: 404, exitingMore Stocks & Mutual Funds Information:
Related Articles
Protect Your 401K
Checked your 401K lately? Going back to about a year ago many of these retirement accounts have shrunk by 30%, some even more. What Happened?You have been putting money in for years and your employer may have been contributing to your plan also.
Stuff
I continually hear from economists, talking heads, other market letter writers, analysts and assorted "experts" that I need to know all kinds of "stuff" about the stocks and mutual funds I am going to buy and I should keep up with them on a regular basis.What is this important "stuff"?Let's see.
Why Investors Use Financial Planners
Do you have a financial planner? Does one of your friends have a financial planner? Maybe you take your advice from your broker. As I have said countless times before a broker will make you broker.
The Next Bull Market
We are already in it, but you can't see it. It doesn't look like the one we had in '99.
Index Fund Trading Using Technical Analysis and Swing Trading Strategies
Index Fund Trading can be one of the most profitable..
Paddle Your Canoe
At some time in your life you have been on a river in a canoe and hopefully you had a paddle. You know about being up the creek without one.
Pension Plans
If you have a pension plan at work you will want to read this and if you don't you will still want to because it affects your retirement account.There are two kinds of formal retirement plans that are set in place by employers.
Trading For A Living
How many times have you said to yourself, "I'd like to quit this job and just make a living trading in the stock market"? Well, maybe you can, BUT..
Stock Market Education; Day Trading for Beginnners; How to Pick Stocks
The trading method you employ to approach the stock market can make a big difference in your results.Stock trading is a very competitive field and in order to succeed you need to FOCUS on a set of simple strategies that you can implement without hesitation.
Prospering with Mutual Funds: How Anyone can "Afford" an Investment Advisor
Recently I was invited to appear on a live CNNfn television show to discuss my article "How to evaluate Load vs. No Load Mutual Funds.
Invest In The Stock Market For The RIGHT Reason, Using The RIGHT Choices
Invest in the stock market for the RIGHT reason, using the RIGHT choices!Investing in the stock market is not purchasing a stock at 25 dollars a share, hoping it will go to 35 so you can sell it, then hoping it will drop back to 25 so you can buy it back, so that you can sell it again at 35, and so on and so forth.In my opinion, that is gambling.
Hot Stock Investing ... How to Pick Hot Stocks with Momentum Stock Trading
Profitable day traders recognize that momentum trading is among the fastest & most effective ways to harvest BIG piles of cash in the stock market.The problem is that if you don't know what stocks to look for and how to approach them while limiting your risk, you won't even get close to making some profits.
Patterns
The Law of Chaos is the theory of random unpredictable action applied to the cosmos, mathematics, mechanics, almost everything. Those who believe it will definitely think the stock market is in chaotic state at this time.
Buying Stocks and the Importance of Correct Timing
An investor can find and research the best stock on the market, one with huge potential but if the general market indices are negative, it will most likely be the wrong time to buy. A stock with tremendous accelerating earnings, rising sales, an up-trending chart pattern and a strong industry group may sound excellent to buy but will mean absolutely nothing if the market is positioned to move in the opposite direction of your expectations.
Financial Crime
Congress recently passed another new law that is supposed to outlaw financial crime. Corporate officers will be sent to jail for "cooking the books" as it is called.
Who Knows?
The Shadow knows. Remember him? It seems a shadow has a firm grip on this stock market.
How To Be A Winner
Everyone who invests in the stock market wants to be a winner. Each person's definition of a winner will be somewhat different, but there is hardly one who isn't looking for that stock that will double in price within one year.
Traders, Defend Against the Dreaded Death Spiral.
It has often been said that there is only two ways to get hurt really bad on a stock trade, getting caught in a "death spiral" by not using DTM: Decisive Trade Management in the way of stop loses and having a stock halted on you. Halts you have zero control over.
A Triple Dipper: How to Make 3 Profits on 1 Stock Trade
This is a rather simple strategy with which I am sure a lot of seasoned traders are very familiar, possibly under some other name with which I am not familiar. I wanted to write about it because I don't see anyone talking about it anymore.
NASDAQ 800?
In November of 2000 when the NASDAQ was trading at 3000 I wrote in this column that the NASDAQ Index would fall to 1500 and I got lots of heat for saying it. Microsoft had fallen from $129 to $60 per share.