Will the Stock Market be Lower in October?
The stock market often closes a week in the middle of a "perceived primary-trend range." SPX closed at about 1,234 Fri, which is between a multi-year Fibonacci level at 1,253 (i.e. 38.2% retracement level from the peak in 2000 to the trough in 2002) and the 20 day MA at 1,212 (which was general support over a recent rally).
It's possible, SPX can rally to 1,253 short-term. However, longer-term (perhaps in Aug and Sep), SPX seems destined to fall sharply. A Goldilocks economy (of neither too hot nor too cold) is priced-into the stock market, and if any future economic data show either output growth has slowed more than expected or inflation has risen more than expected, then massive selling may take place.
There are several intermediate-term technical indicators that make me cautious. VIX (S&P 500 Volatility Index) shows an extreme level of complacency. VIX fell below 10 last week, to a 12-year low. Consequently, the SPX to VIX ratio hit an all-time high last week. Moreover, both the Transport and Utility Indices to VIX ratios have rocketed at parabolic rates recently, to over 50% beyond previous year's highs. Also, a ratio of large cap to small cap stocks (e.g. S&P 100 to Russell 2,000) is near a multi-decade low, which indicates big institutions, who tend to buy large cap stocks, are not convinced of the rally. Moreover, the SPX to U.S. Dollar ratio is near a historically high level. There's typically an inverse relationship between the U.S. stock market and the U.S. dollar, because a weaker dollar spurs export growth, which is normally bullish for the stock market. The high ratio indicates it's more likely the stock market will fall, since the dollar depreciation has stabilized for over six months, at far lower levels than a few years ago, and then risen somewhat recently.
SPX has open gaps at 1,221, 1,174, 1,143, and 1,138. Nasdaq also has several open gaps, including one at 1,905, which is currently 275 points lower. The stock market has been a market of deep rises and deep falls. For example, just over the past 13 months, Nasdaq fell 305 points (in two months), then rose 440 points (in four months), then fell 300 points (in four months), and then rose 300 points (in three months). Moreover, VXN (a Nasdaq volatility index) rose only six to nine points over the two deep falls, and declined from 28 to 12 (an all-time low), over the past 13 months, which made it a particularly unforgiving short-term trading market.
Economic reports next week are: Mon: Existing Home Sales, Tue: Consumer Confidence, Wed: Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and Fed's Beige Book, Thu: Unemployment Claims, Fri: GDP and GDP Price Deflator, Employment Cost Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Chicago PMI.
Notable earnings next week include:
Mon: AXP TXN XRX PBI CEGE CD
Tue: AMZN DD SEBL WWY BIIB IMCL X N VLO LMT BDK GLW SUNW SE SWY MDG RFMD MCHP SSTI NANX
Wed: BA AHC COP CSX CL SBUX K KMG MSO NEM CHIR OSIP CRA FON HMC HCA
Thu: BMY GSK ELN GP XOM APA KLAC SYMC XMSR WMI BR RTN AET PD AU ABX KGC PAAS ZEUS GR WEN JNS DCX
Fri: CHV BHI AEP ADM BWNG
Large caps may outperform small caps over the next few months, i.e. small caps may fall greater than large caps. So, IWM (Russell 2000) and SPX (S&P 500) puts may be better than QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) and OEX (S&P 100) puts. With volatility levels at all-time or multi-decade lows, the steep decline in volatility, since the cyclical bull market began in Oct 2002, may shift into an uptrend. So, market conditions may improve for short-term traders, including daytraders.
Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.
Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past three years.
More Resources
Unable to open RSS Feed $XMLfilename with error HTTP ERROR: 404, exitingMore Stocks & Mutual Funds Information:
Related Articles
Hot Stock Trader: How to Pick Momentum Stocks with Ease and Simplicity
Most stock traders know that momentum trading can be a very profitable activity. You can make big amounts of cash in a short period of time.
8 Penny Stocks to Avoid
There are many good penny stock investments available, which could turn a small amount of capital into a small fortune very quickly. However, to discover these you need to know what to look for and what to avoid.
Expense Ratios
Mutual funds and brokers are always preaching not to buy any fund with a high expense ratio. That is the annual costs of the fund to pay for trading of stocks within their portfolio, salaries, rent, telephone, analysts, etc.
What To Buy Now
I am sure that if you have a brokerage account with a "full service" broker you have been getting calls about what to buy and sell. If you have big losses in certain stocks you might be hit with that great Wall Street lie to buy more so you can 'Dollar Cost Average'.
Choosing An Investment Stock Broker
If you want one.And I don't recommend any broker with whom to trade who will be giving you advice on what to buy and sell.
It Cant Be Done
Wouldn't it be nice if you were only in the stock market when it was going up and have everything transferred to cash while it is going down? It is called 'market timing' and your broker or financial planner will tell you "it can't be done". What that person just told you is he doesn't know how to do it.
Mutual Fund Expense Lies
When purchasing mutual funds we are cautioned to read the prospectus, look at past performance, check out the fund manager's record and see what their expense ratios have been.We are also told that we should not buy funds with expenses exceeding 1% to 1.
Acapulco - The Stock Market Dives
There is a famous cliff on the ocean in Acapulco where experienced divers jump into the sea. It is very dangerous because the water at the base of the cliff surges from a depth of 2 feet to 12 feet.
Stock Market Diversification
In one of my previous articles (Investing in the stock market -9 powerful tips), tip number one was:1. Do not spread your money too thin.
Buying New Issues
Has your broker been calling you recently with the "great opportunity" to get in on a new Initial Public Offering? With friends like that you don't need any enemies.I don't care how good this new stock offering sounds.
Choosing a Stock Broker
If you were to find that you had some severe illness that required surgery, would you attempt to perform that surgery upon yourself? What if your car broke down and needed a valve job? Would you get out the Craftsman tool set you got for Christmas three years ago and start tinkering under the hood even though you know absolutely nothing about engines? Of course you wouldn't do either of these things because there are times in life when we know we must seek the assistance of a professional. So why is it that so many people try to make their own investment decisions without consulting a professional stock broker?A stock broker is a trained financial professional who knows how to watch the trends of the stock market, is kept up to date on financial developments by her brokerage firm, and knows how to make wise and sound investment decisions.
Lights of the Stock Market
There are red lights, green lights, blue lights and spot lights. There are orange lights, pink light and flash lights.
Stock Trading - Daddy, Why Arent We Rich?
One Saturday morning, while he was sitting at his computer studying the market, David's 7 year old daughter came up, tugged at his shirt sleeve, and said, "Daddy, why aren't we rich?" He looked his child in the eye, and thought to himself, what a great question - Why aren't we rich?As she stood there expectantly waiting for an answer, he struggled to come to terms with the realization that, although he had focused his complete attention on trying to create wealth for more than 10 years, he had never actually made any real headway.He had bought and sold many Stocks and several properties over those years, but had never made any real money.
Low Expense Ratio
One of the big advertising kicks today from mutual funds is to tell how low their expense ratio is and that you will make a great deal more money if you buy and hold with them. Partly true, but that is not the whole story.
Analyst Reports
When you become interested in a stock or mutual fund you can call your broker and he will send you reports on how the company is doing, what their management is like and what might be the projected earnings for the company and how the industry is doing. Great information.
A Penny for Your Stocks
According to Investopedia Inc. the penny stock market has seen phenomenal growth this past decade.
How to Maximize Your 401k Mutual Fund Returns
When it comes to 401k's there is an overabundance of sad stories. Here is one that at least has a happy ending-and it's getting happier all the time.
Different Ways of Buying Stocks
Let's say you are interested in this one company. You read its annual report, like what you see and your calculation indicates that the stock is trading way below its fair value.
Discipline
One of the great "secrets" of successful people is discipline and it doesn't make any difference whether it is manufacturing, processing, servicing or investing in the stock market.Before you can have that discipline you must have a successful plan and stick with it.
Buy Low - Sell High
Now where have I heard that before? I know. It was my broker.