Picking Mutual Funds to Outperform the Market
With over 6,000 mutual funds available, it may be tempting to pick funds from a popular star or index rating system. Savvy investors, however, balance multiple factors in their selection process. Ratings represent only the historical performance of funds and cannot predict the future. Performance consistency, management skill, and expense limitations are among the many factors that influence a fund's prospects. Each must be carefully evaluated to improve your chances of finding a fund to outperform the market.
Create a plan
Define your financial goals. Are you saving for retirement? Putting money aside for a home? Funding a child's college education? Your answer will have significant implications on your choice of mutual funds. More time gives you flexibility to use an aggressive approach. Immediate needs call for safety and capital preservation. Take careful consideration of your tolerance for risk. If the market dips, at what point would you lose sleep? Is it a 5% drop? 10% drop? An asset allocation plan will balance your portfolio and maximize return for your level of acceptable risk.
Dismiss recent results
Past performance is no indicator of future results. No truer words could ever be spoken and they are included in every mutual fund advertisement. But it's extremely difficult to ignore these numbers which the fund companies conveniently place in big bold letters - immediately above the fine print warning us. Nothing is more attractive than a fund with a great record, especially given the dismal performance in the market.
Past performance can provide a good starting point, but nothing more. In fact, past performance predicts losers better than the winners. A 1998 study from fund-tracking firm Morningstar, demonstrated the top fund performers rarely hold their spot on the charts. The study also concludes bottom performers rarely did anything but continue to sink. Never assume the past will repeat itself, yet, ignore a fund's historical record at your own peril. Avoid the perennial losers.
Seek consistency
Evaluate a mutual fund's performance beyond just the recent year. Any fund can get lucky, but it's the rare firm that prove themselves year after year. Examining a fund's long term performance can answer the question of consistency. If the performance was good, was it repeatable due to skill - or merely a spike due to dumb luck?
Watch for a solid record of returns, rather than funds showing spurts of great years followed by fits of lousy ones. Compare the fund's returns to a relevant benchmark index, (large-cap vs. S&P 500, small-cap to the Russell Index, etc.) Solid funds should not only consistently beat the benchmarks, they should also beat their peers.
Seek good managers
Always review the experience and performance of the fund's managers. When you buy a mutual fund, you are actually investing in the experience, skill, and savvy that the manager brings to the table. When the manager leaves, the fund performance generally goes with him. How many years has the manager been leading the fund? The longer (if generating strong results), the better. And keep an eye out for the gurus. The industry's better managers are well-respected, high-regarded, and often quoted in the press. You'll find multiple articles and even manager profiles published in the popular financial magazines and newspapers.
Think cheap
Check out the fund's cost of ownership. While you can not predict a fund's performance, you can control the ongoing expenses. Since expenses impact your ability to grow investments over time, select a fund with low costs. Check the expense ratio, sales fees, trading costs, and 12b-1 fees charged to cover the marketing, distribution and sales. Everything counts against your bottom line - keep it small as possible. When possible, choose funds with expenses less than their category average.
Taxes are often overlooked and can substantially reduce your after-tax gain unless investing within a tax-deferred, retirement account. Avoid funds with large distributions (capital gain payments) by searching for funds with low turnover. Since buying and selling stock incurs transaction costs, lower turnover translates to lower expenses and lower capital gains' taxes. Fund managers who seek to boost returns through repeatedly buying and selling securities are no friend of yours.
Putting it all together
Picking mutual funds is a challenging task. You will need to spend time learning, researching, investigating, analyzing, and comparing. The key is to develop your own methodology using some of the components listed here along with your own judgment and decision capabilities. Review your investment plan and fund selection criteria at least once a year. Make sure the plan still matches your goals and the funds match your expectations.
It's your money. It's your future. Take your time. Get it right.
Tim Olson
TheAssetAdvisor.comMr. Olson is the editor of The Asset Advisor, a financial investment service providing proven strategies for no-load mutual fund investors. He brings 26 years of education and experience from Stanford University, Ernst & Young financial consulting, personal wealth management, and venture capital investing.
Subscribe to our free newsletterMore Resources
Unable to open RSS Feed $XMLfilename with error HTTP ERROR: 404, exitingMore Stocks & Mutual Funds Information:
Related Articles
Enron Cure
Let's hope you did not have any of the Enron stock. Maybe you know someone who did and lost everything, but you certainly might know several people who owned stock that lost almost everything.
Advisory Service for You?
It depends on your level of understanding of the market and the amount of money you have.If you a sophisticated investor with a substantial amount invested you are probably already receiving more than one.
Gurgle Gurgle
Caught in a whirlpool and being sucked under. No life vest or other device to save you.
The Value of Stocks of a Company
The debate rages all over Eastern and Central Europe, in countries in transition as well as in Western Europe. It raged in Britain during the 80s: Is privatization really the robbery in disguise of state assets by a select few, cronies of the political regime? Margaret Thatcher was accuse of it - and so was the Agency of Transformation in the Republic of Macedonia.
Investing in the Stock Market - When To!
Is really not as important as to how you invest in the stock market. And how you invest in the stock market should take into consideration what goals you are setting for that stock market investment.
Precision Money Management
This article describes the model of a natural relationship between trading system performance, trade position size, stop loss settings and profit goals. The model consists of algebraic equations that specify the trade size and stop loss settings needed to meet profit goals over a specified time period for any consistently used trading system for which historical performance data is available.
Stock Trading - Daddy, Why Arent We Rich?
One Saturday morning, while he was sitting at his computer studying the market, David's 7 year old daughter came up, tugged at his shirt sleeve, and said, "Daddy, why aren't we rich?" He looked his child in the eye, and thought to himself, what a great question - Why aren't we rich?As she stood there expectantly waiting for an answer, he struggled to come to terms with the realization that, although he had focused his complete attention on trying to create wealth for more than 10 years, he had never actually made any real headway.He had bought and sold many Stocks and several properties over those years, but had never made any real money.
Fools Gold
The stock market has been in an up trend for more than a year. Almost everyone is feeling good and many believe we are back in the old bull market with the previous high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average just about to be broken.
Mutual Funds: The Modern Den of Thieves!
Mutual funds were created with the idea that one person can specialize and manage the investments of a large pool of money from multiple investors. Before the great depression mutual funds were called investment pools and mutual fund managers were called pool operators.
Trade Stocks for Real
I read a comment by a forum member on another site earlier today that suggested that every investor should back test their system for at least twenty years. I disagree and will now tell you why.
The I Word is Coming to a Town Near You
Hello Inflation, it has been awhile, I see you on your way back again. Inflation? What inflation? Oh things like; Energy, diesel fuel, Aviation Fuel, Gasoline, Natural Gas, Milk, Wheat, Corn, Beef, Poultry, Hogs, Soy Beans, Building materials, paper, housing, Auto Prices, Health Care, Insurance, etc.
What Are You Waiting For?
Do you own any mutual funds? In an IRA or 401K or wherever. Privately or at work.
High Price/Earnings Ratios and the Stock Market: a Personal Odyssey
After some forty years of banking and investments, I retired in 2001. But since I do not golf, I soon found retirement to be very boring.
Diversification
Wall Street's watchword has always been diversification, but what does it mean and why do they say it?The standard Wall Street definition is flexible because each broker or financial planner will vary the portfolio based on your age and income. They say that the younger you are the more risk you should take and the older you are the less risk.
Planning Your Dive and Diving Your Plan - Trading!
A colleague of mine just returned from a scuba diving trip in Cozumel, which just happens to be one of my favorite places to dive. Anyway, she was telling me about an unexpected difficulty she encountered while swimming around the corral reef down about 85 feet.
Is the Stock Market for You?
Many people would like to diversify their portfolios to expand their holdings. Making it big in the stock market has been a dream for many people who want to strike it rich.
How (NOT) to Buy Mutual Funds
When it comes to mutual funds, there is a lot more to success than just finding a good one. Sad investment stories like the following are all too common.
Market Experience of a Naïve Stock Operator
Sometime in the third quarter of 1997, someone told me that I should play the stock market. Knowing nothing about the stock market, I turned to some colleagues to seem to know a lot about it.
Time Out
Are you paying any attention to your retirement savings? Do you have it in cash or an account with a broker? Maybe you have a professional manager who is investing your money as you add to it every month.Is your account increasing in value every year? If it isn't why are you letting anyone else invest for you? There is no point having a loser in charge of your money.
Investing in Dividend Paying Stocks
I was recently interviewed for a press release through a financial question and answer format. One of the questions asked of me in the interview was:Where do you think the stock market is headed over the next five years?My Answer!Charles M.