The Big Bad Bear
The big bad bear is stirring again. So far he has stretched, yawned and peaked out of his cave. After his almost year-long nap he is hungry. A nice big steak would hit the spot.
That steak comes from cattle and not too far from his den there is a fat complacent bull munching in the pasture. He has his tail towards the bear and Mr. Bear remembers that 3 years ago he walked up to another bull and bit him in the backside. It looks like he can do it again.
We know who bull and bear really are. It seems that almost everyone is bullish and thinks we are in another bull market like the one in 1999 where all investors thought they were geniuses. History has taught (for those who wish to listen and learn) that major bull markets are followed by bear markets of equal length. The major bull came to an end after 18 years in 2000. Can we expect an 18-year bear market? If history repeats its cycle the answer is yes.
The recent return of the upward movement of stock prices from last year is very typical of rallies in bear markets. Many have a 50% retracement of the first down leg (as happened after the big break in 1929) that tops out with the resumption of the downward path.
Today our bull is feeding on the lowest interest rates in 40 years, a tax cut that puts extra money in the hands of consumers (where it belongs) and a strong housing market plus the belief that the market always does well in an election year. Let's hope all these things will come to pass.
The worst problem for investors is their complacency. They start making money and forget to protect their profits. These slip away when the market starts down and their broker says, "Don't worry. The market always comes back". If the investor did not learn to protect his assets from the 2000 debacle he is doomed to lose again. What should he do?
He should protect his investment account with stop-loss orders on all stocks and mental stops for all mutual funds. Brokers hate this and will try to talk their clients out of doing it. Why? Because he makes a commission as long as you are invested and nothing if you have cash in your money market.
It is better to make 1% in a money market than lose 20% or more of the principle as the market heads south. You don't have to be a market "expert" to place a stop. Decide how much risk you are will to take 5%, 10%, 15%? And place your stop accordingly.
When this bear comes out of his cave don't let him bite you - you know where.
Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.
Copyright 2005
More Resources
Unable to open RSS Feed $XMLfilename with error HTTP ERROR: 404, exitingMore Stocks & Mutual Funds Information:
Related Articles
Where Is The Beef?
Where is the beef? Or maybe it should be where is the bull? Market, that is? The chief investment strategists and analysts of the major brokerage houses have been promising us a new bull market.So far the bull hasn't come in from the distant pasture.
Long Term Investing
In his wonderful book, 'Multiple Streams of Income', best selling author Robert Allen advises Investors to divide their Stock Market investment and trading capital into three portions -50% invested long term (forever) in an Index Fund, 30% invested in Accelerated Stock strategies and 20% in options or high risk investment strategies.This article will discuss long term investing and how technical analysis can alert us to points in time when it is prudent to take profits and exit the Stock market.
Market Timing?
The recent criminal fiasco in the mutual fund industry is being used by Wall Street to persuade investors that market timing is a bad thing. The late trading by Janus, Bank America and several other well known mutual funds is falsely being called market timing.
Staying Sane While Wall Street Crashes
Everybody is riding the Wall Street Roller coaster. Even if you are not invested, the headlines scream out one word: PANIC!It's hard not to join in the panicking.
Risk Control
Everything you invest in has risk so you want to do your research before you put your money on the line.For example, when McDonald's opens a new restaurant (please, don't call it a hamburger joint) they will investigate as many of the relevant facts as possible.
Its Snowing
The Winter Games for the Olympics are coming up soon and many will want to go to see the giant slalom event. That's the one where the skier starts off from the little hut at the top of a long slope, picks up speed and makes his way around poles on the way down.
Investing in Stocks and The Game of Monopoly
To begin, you might look at playing the stock market as though you were playing a game of Monopoly. That's right; for playing the stock market 'game' is not unlike playing a game of Monopoly.
Trading Baskets II: The Crapolio, A Roll of the Dice in the Stock Market
In a previously written article, we expanded the use of the term "Trading Baskets" to include stocks from different sectors or industries. Now I want to share with you an approach to day trading or swing trading that I had some success with back in the wild and woolly, pinnacle days of day trading that may still work today.
The 10 Commandments
Wall Street has been preaching for years and years to investors how and where to put their money. The "experts" have put forth these ideas for so long that they seem to be carved in stone just like Moses did with God's 10 Commandments.
Commoditizing the world
Let's discuss commodities; with the latest Enron situation, it is important to understand the way things work. A commodity is anything useful, especially a transportable agricultural product or mining product.
Option Trading Basics
Options trading can increase the profits you make when trading Stocks if you understand how to use them and know what you are doing. Options can be a very useful tool that the average investor can use to enhance their returns.
Buy and Hold Investment Strategy
"Buy and hold" is one of the most heralded investment strategies promoted today. "Buy and hold" is also one of the few investment methods where you are guaranteed to lose money 2 out of every 5 years.
Duct Tape
Did you run out to buy that duct tape yet? Don't forget the plastic sheeting, bottles of water, canned food and a couple of books to read. What are you waiting for? I know - things to get better so you can resume your normal life style.
Psychology - How to Reduce Negative Thoughts Relating to Trading?
The thinking process of the brain relating to the psychology of trading involves:-- Beliefs -- Feelings -- Values -- Dispositions and -- FaithThe positive or negative energy brings power to a person's actions, which ultimately determines whether a person is a winner or a loser. You can change for the better or for the worst.
Prosperity
It has fallen upon the consumer to make our economy strong. All the politicians, economists and talking heads on TV are telling him (that's you and me) to get out there and spend your money.
Attitude Is [Almost] Everything
I often play a little game with myself when I have to go shopping; to the post office or on other errands.Sometimes I will just go about my business and make little comment or eye contact with the person serving me.
Why Is The Macedonian Stock Exchange Unsuccessful?
The Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) is not operating successfully. True, some of the parameters which we use to measure the success of a stock exchange have lately improved in the MSE.
Bull or Bear?
Cat or dog? Maybe Zebra. Shucks, I don't know, but my broker keeps telling me it is a bull and to buy this and that.
Chart Reading
As an investor you will want to check out any equity before you buy it. Many investors go to Morningstar that is one of the largest providers of mutual fund information in the world.
Which Way The Market
I am hearing predictions by brokers, financial planners, talk show hosts and the talking heads on TV that the market is going back to its old highs - DOW 11,700 and NASDAQ 5000 here we come.It seems to me that in 2000 I heard these same people saying there was no top to the market and were looking into their crystal balls for DOW 30,000 or some other fantastic number.