Where is the Market Going?

If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time next year, well I may as well flip a coin, because I don't know.

If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time next month, well again, I may as well flip a coin, because I still don't know.

If you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time next week, AGAIN, I may as well flip a coin, because I don't know.

And if you ask me whether the market will have moved up or down by this time tomorrow, I am sorry, but I JUST DON'T KNOW!

But? if you ask me whether the market will move up or down in next few minutes, well I will have a definite opinion. Why? Because if I can see the CURRENT state of buying and selling in the market NOW, then I can make a reasoned and fairly accurate estimate of what the market will do in the next few minutes and moments.

My prediction will not be based on some secret formula; it will not be based on some esoteric sounding indicator, nor on some complex mathematical equation. No, it will be based on my evaluation of the current state of supply and demand.

Predicting the long-term movements of the markets is a guessing game. All we have to go on is the past; all we can reasonably do is assume that what has happened in the past will continue to happen in the future. Basically that is what trend following is, making the assumption that the past equals the future.

In my trading world, the only law that works is that of supply and demand: if there are more buyers than sellers then the market will go up; and if there are more sellers than buyers the market will go down.

It matters not one iota the whys and wherefores of the buyers and the sellers. It does not matter that a trader has chosen to sell now because the 9 period moving average has crossed the 14 period; or because he has just lost his shirt; or because he is taking a profit; or because he is just plain bored.

No, I don't care why a trader has entered a buy or a sell order, I just care that they have, by their act, added to either the buying or the selling pressure.

Malcolm Robinson
LIFFE Pit Trader & Electronic Trader
InstinctiveTrader.com

More Resources

Unable to open RSS Feed $XMLfilename with error HTTP ERROR: 404, exiting

More Currency Trading Information:

Related Articles

Stock Market Report: Day Trading or Swing Trading Online? Stock Investing Information
Profitable day traders recognize that momentum trading is among the fastest & most effective ways to harvest BIG piles of cash in the stock market.The problem is that if you don't know what stocks to look for and how to approach them while limiting your risk, you won't even get close to making some profits.
Forex Options Market Overview
The forex options market started as an over-the-counter (OTC) financial vehicle for large banks, financial institutions and large international corporations to hedge against foreign currency exposure. Like the forex spot market, the forex options market is considered an "interbank" market.
Where to Get Forex Training
For those of you who are interested in forex trading, you may want to start off by getting some good forex training. Forex training is a necessity for anyone with this interest.
Forex Scams: How to Spot Them A Mile Away
In recent years, investors have witnessed increased number of investment opportunities and offerings. While the complexity and success of these investment products vary, technological innovation has made the Forex market one of the fastest growth areas.
Forex Brokers - Helping to Maximize Your Success
A Forex broker is a broker dealing in foreign exchange, just like real estate broker who deals in real estate and properties. Simply, a Forex broker is an advisor who advises you about the forex market.
Options Trading - Advantages and Disadvantages
What is Options Trading?An option is simply granting someone the right to buy or sell something in the future. In the case of Dow index futures options, when someone buys a Dow call option they are buying the right to purchase that underlying Dow future at a specific price, known as the "strike price," at a future point in time, known as the "expiration date.
The Seven Most Traded Currencies in FOREX.
Currencies are traded in dollar amounts called "lots". Onelot is equal to $1,000, which controls $100,000 in currency.
Forex Signal Services
What are Forex signals? Forex signals are paid services offered by some brokers and independent Forex annalists. Companies that offer forex signals monitor and analyze the market for you, providing you with their data via desktop alerts, email or even SMS and pager alerts.
Your Mother Could Make Money In Forex Trading
The question would be not whether she could but rather would she enter the Forex trading market. The Forex day trading arena is a veritable snake pit ripe for scam artists to bilk money out of unwary investors.
Chinas New Currency Regime
The base unit for the renminbi is the yuan, which is how the Chinese currency is most commonly referred to. The official ISO abbreviation for the yuan is CNY, but it is also commonly abbreviated in the forex industry as RMB.
Forex Trading - Advantages and Disadvantages
What is Forex Trading?Forex, or Foreign Exchange, is the simultaneous exchange of one country's currency for that of another. This market of exchange has more daily volume, both buyers and sellers, than any other in the world.
Forex Market Overview
"FX" is an abbreviation of "forex" or "foreign exchange." Foreign exchange is the largest and most liquid market in the world trading approximately $2 trillion every day (that's over 30 times the daily volume of NASDAQ and NYSE combined).
How To Control Fear And Greed In Trading
There is an old saying that the market is driven by fear and greed. Anyone that has placed more than a couple of trades will surely have experienced these two emotions.
Is The U.S. Dollar About To Reverse Course?
For the first time in several years the U.S.
Two Timeless Rules in FOREX Investing
RULE #1) ~ Cut your losers; let your winners ride.One important thing that every new trader must know before entering this highly profitable business is that life is not perfect, even in FOREX land, and you should always know one fact: YOU WILL HAVE LOSING TRADES.
Why Hedge Foreign Currency Risk?
International commerce has rapidly increased as the internet has provided a new and more transparent marketplace for individuals and entities alike to conduct international business and trading activities. Significant changes in the international economic and political landscape have led to uncertainty regarding the direction of foreign exchange rates.
Money Management - The Holy Grail Of Trading
Money management determines how much to risk on each individual trade. This is a vital element of any trading system - risk too much and the chances of going bust are too high, risk too little and the reward for trading is too low.
Day Trading the Index Futures - How to Judge Good Entries
QUESTION: If the SP futures fall through support and go straight down for another two points, and I want to get short, should I a.)enter immediately, b.
Exploring the World of Day Trading
Are you looking into a career in day trading? In the past, the tools for day trading were available only to professionals. But thanks to the power of the Internet, everything you need to get started is now conveniently online.
The Nature of the Trading Business
Consider the following: As a trader you are in a business. Your strongest opponent has plenty of capital.